After another massive drop in ERC refund last week, this week brought a harsh reality: we’re still deep in the drought. Refunds dried up once again, and any signs of the IRS “makin’ it rain” are still off in the distance.
📉 Following last week's precipitous decrease in total ERC refunds processed, TaxNow’s latest data shows we’ve sunk even further with this week’s 335 refunds, a 41% plunge from last week’s 565 refunds issued, marking the third straight week of double-digit declines. Looks like the refund skies have closed up, for now at least.
📉 Another gut-wrenching surprise from the average refund as this week’s amounts dropped to $166,268 compared to last week’s $193,274. Still a healthy payout, but is it enough to keep spirits afloat as the overall volume dries up?
📢 **New Chart Alert** By popular demand, TaxNow is also bringing you a new weekly chart: total dollar volume of ERC processed per week!
📉 Coming in hot but heading downhill fast, this week’s total dollar volume took a hard hit, falling to $55.7 million from last week’s $109.2 million. That’s nearly half the cash flowing out, turning what looked like a steady stream into a shrinking puddle.
1. The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Could Deal a Crushing Blow to Founders’ ERC Claims - The Employee Retention Credit (ERC) helped many small businesses stay afloat during the pandemic by providing significant refunds. But the new “Big Beautiful Bill” aims to retroactively cut off claims filed after January 31, 2024, despite the original April 2025 deadline. This change threatens to strip thousands of business owners of refunds they were counting on, especially those who filed late or through third-party providers. While concerns about fraud prompted some IRS crackdowns, many valid claims remain pending, and this rollback could lead to legal battles and contradict efforts to support small businesses.
2. Senate Considers Bypassing Committee Markups for Key Vote - Tim Parrish, President of the HIRE Coalition, recently reported that the Senate is considering skipping traditional committee markups and moving directly to a floor vote. The timing of the vote remains fluid. The week of June 23 is a potential target, though uncertainty around Republican internal discussions, the outcome of the "Byrd Bath" (e.g., Byrd Rule review), and the uphill battle to secure 50 votes could push the vote until after the July 4 recess. If the legislation were passed today in its current form, both the early termination of the ERC and the expanded 6-year statute would become law. As Senate Republicans deliberate behind closed doors, stakeholders and observers are watching closely to see how this high-stakes legislative maneuvering unfolds.
3. GOP Senators Push Back on Trump’s Sweeping Tax Bill - While President Trump aims to sign the sweeping tax and spending bill this summer that extends his first-term tax cuts and enacts other major changes, key Republican senators, including Josh Hawley, Susan Collins, Rick Scott, and Ron Johnson, are pushing back. These dissenting Senators are demanding significant revisions to Medicaid, green energy subsidies, and spending levels before they’ll support the legislation. The bill, which passed the House, would add $3.8 trillion to the national debt and make major Medicaid cuts, sparking concerns from fiscal conservatives and some moderate Republicans alike. With a razor-thin margin in the Senate, these senators’ demands could reshape, or stall, the bill as leaders race to pass it by July 4.
Kenny's Conclusions
As the ERC refund pipeline continues to sputter and the future of the credit hangs in the balance, TaxNow will remain at the forefront, bringing you the latest insights, data, and analysis. While the “Big Beautiful Bill” looms large and the Senate’s next move remains uncertain, it’s never been more critical to stay informed and proactive. Whether you’re navigating the current refund drought, monitoring new legislative threats, or bracing for the next wave of IRS enforcement, TaxNow is here to help you weather the storm and make sense of it all. Stay tuned for updates as the story of the ERC slow drip saga continues.
Signing off!
Kenny Dettman, CPA
Disclaimer: *𝘋𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 12,000 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘌𝘙𝘊*
