While it's too soon to declare a true “trend,” ERC processing over the past six weeks has shown signs of stabilization, with total dollar volume consistently ranging between $50 million and $100 million across TaxNow’s data set. Meanwhile, the legislative rollercoaster continues, as the Senate voted yesterday to send its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) back to the House, this time with only “partial” ERC-Killer provisions included (see Fresh Off the Press below for details).
📉 Our latest TaxNow data shows that refunds processed slipped slightly to 530, down from last week’s 544. That’s a tolerable 3% decline, but still light years away from the recent highs two months ago. Maybe the refund train made fewer stops this week, or maybe it’s running on summer hours?
📈 Average refund stayed flat at $133,516 compared to the previous week’s $133,086.
📉 Overall, we saw a modest drop in the total dollar volume, which decreased to $70.9M, down from last week’s $71.9M. Looks like the big bucks took a quick nap this week – fingers crossed that they wake up refreshed and ready to roll next week!
1. Senate Advances OBBBA with Partial ERC-Killer Provisions - After a marathon overnight session and intense eleventh-hour negotiations, Senate Republicans narrowly passed President Trump’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) by a 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. The bill, which mirrors the House version passed in May, advances Trump’s top legislative priorities—including permanent extensions of tax cuts, new tax breaks for tipped and overtime workers, deep cuts to Medicaid and nutrition assistance, and hundreds of billions in new defense and border security funding. Three Republicans joined all Democrats in opposition, citing concerns over the bill’s $5 trillion debt ceiling hike and the impact of Medicaid reductions. Despite some last-minute policy removals like an excise tax on wind and solar, the OBBBA draft continues to include the originally proposed provisions related to the Employee Retention Credit (ERC): early termination for Q3 and Q4 of 2021, extension of the statute of limitations, and enforcement-focused “promoter” rules. The bill now heads back to the House, where intra-party divisions and a tight timeline could complicate efforts to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline
2. Record-Breaking Vote-o-Rama Ensues for OBBBA - The Senate’s all-night vote-a-rama on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) continued late into Tuesday morning, but Senator Tuberville’s last-ditch amendment to strike the retroactive repeal of Q3 and Q4 2021 ERC claims ultimately did not receive a vote. This session broke the previous record of 44 amendments set in 2008.
3. Disruption and Delays Likely for Independent Office of Appeals - The IRS Independent Office of Appeals is facing significant disruption after losing 500 employees this year, many of them senior staff, bringing headcount back to 2019 levels. While Appeals Chief Elizabeth Askey expressed optimism about improving cycle times, she acknowledged that staffing setbacks and confusion around the “coordinated issues” program have raised concerns about the office’s independence and efficiency. With thousands of ERC denial protests now sitting in queue and very few meetings scheduled, the prospect of resolving these disputes within the statutory 2-year window looks increasingly bleak.
Kenny's Conclusions
While the ERC refund engine continues to chug along, albeit at a slower, steadier pace, uncertainty looms large. On the processing front, TaxNow’s latest data shows relative stability in dollar volume and refund timelines, with promising signs that the moratorium has effectively lifted. But politically, the ground remains shaky. The Senate’s passage of the OBBBA, with partial ERC-Killer provisions still intact, keeps the legislative threat very much alive, even as the House prepares for what’s sure to be another round of high-stakes wrangling. Meanwhile, the growing backlog at the IRS Independent Office of Appeals and the resurgence of ERC audits add further pressure to a system already strained. For ERC claimants and practitioners alike, vigilance remains essential because while progress is happening, the window for resolution, review, and refund is far from guaranteed.
Signing off!
Kenny Dettman, CPA
Disclaimer: *𝘋𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 13,000 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘌𝘙𝘊*
